The main event of UFC 270 sees an excellent heavyweight title fight between two former training partners, Francis Ngannou and Ciryl Gane. It’s time to continue our UFC odds series with a Ngannou-Gane prediction and pick.
Both men come into the fight as UFC champions with Ngannou the actual champion and Gane the interim champion. On a very basic level, the fight is seen as raw power vs. technique. Ford Escort power vs reliability of an old reliable work truck. The UFC 270 odds are all over the place for this fight and it seems like it has many people divided. There are plenty of fun storylines too as both men have claimed they knocked each other out in sparring, Gane’s coach beefing with Ngannou, and the two not being able to agree on their time training together.
Francis Ngannou comes into UFC 270 ready to defend his title for the first time after knocking out Stipe Miocic back in March 2021. His rematch against Miocic is most likely the best performance of his career and he’s grown a lot since losing to Miocic back in 2018. Ngannou is a dangerous man and making it seem like he’s wreckless is very dangerous.
Ciryl Gane comes into the fight undefeated and draws comparisons to greats like Jon Jones. It’s easy to forget that the man only has ten professional fights with seven of them coming in the UFC. He’s shown the ability to finish fights in many ways and a willingness to change his tactics depending on the fighter he’s facing. The Frenchman is capable of being patient and finding the finish or grinding the fight out as needed. Gane is very well-rounded and many are excited about him for good reason. There’s no doubt he’ll go down among the greats at heavyweight.
Here are the UFC 270 odds, featuring our Ngannou-Gane prediction, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC 270 odds: Ngannou-Gane Odds
Francis Ngannou: (+122)
Ciryl Gane: (-144)
Over 2.5 rounds: (-108)
Under 2.5 rounds: (-118)
How Francis Ngannou wins the fight at UFC 270
By knockout. Seriously, the UFC heavyweight champion has crazy power and could knock out an elephant. That’s oversimplifying it of course. Ciryl Gane is not going to stand around and wait for the champion to land clean. Ngannou has unfairly been seen as a sloppy power puncher that throws wildly while closing his eyes. This couldn’t be further from the truth. Ngannou is an incredible tactician with the ability to stay on his feet and embrace the chaos. His power is a huge asset and he has no issue setting up clean punches.
Ngannou has excellent counter wrestling and is dangerous everywhere in the fight. The big issue for Gane will be to decide how much time he spends in the clinch and how often he tries to wrestle. Ngannou is very dangerous in transition and an opening will very well present itself as Gane will look to tire out the champion. The clinch is going to be a very big tool for both men and could lead to Ngannou finding the opening he needs. Ngannou going the distance is very rare and it’s tough to pick the champion by decision considering that is not how he wins fights. The most likely scenario is Francis Ngannou finds an opening using the clinch and he finds the knockout.
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How Ciryl Gane wins the fight at UFC 270
Ciryl Gane has all the tools to win the fight. His fights against Derrick Lewis and Jairzinho Rozenstruik are good indications of how he will be looking to get the job done against Francis Ngannou. His use of the clinch could be dangerous but he will need to use it against the champion. Gane’s wrestling will factor in and Ngannou’s counter wrestling will determine how effective Gane’s wrestling will be early on in the fight.
The plan is simple, avoid the power shots and tire out the champion. A finish could come but it would have to be in the form of tiring out the champion and finding an opening. A submission or TKO would come later in the fight depending on how intense the opening rounds are. Gane is great at adjusting his style and will look to take the champion to deep waters. A win comes in the form of a decision with Gane having to survive a few scary moments.
Final Ngannou-Gane Prediction & Pick
This is a very tough fight to predict as both men have a very clear and probable way of winning the fight. The UFC 270 odds are close for good reason. Francis Ngannou by knockout in the first couple of rounds and Ciryl Gane by decision with a technical and tough, grinding performance. There is no safe pick in this one and that’s what makes it such an exciting fight. Gane will look to respect Ngannou’s power and stay cautious in the opening rounds. His ability to use the clinch and wrestling will be a big factor. Ngannou will look to start fast and land clean.
Both men are very respectful of each other’s skills and the fight could have a slow start depending on each man’s gameplan. The pick here is Ngannou by knockout in the first or second round. The Cameroonian champion finds the knockout in transition or forces, Gane, against the fence and finds mistakes in his defense. Either way, it won’t be easy.
Final Ngannou-Gane Prediction & Pick: Francis Ngannou wins by knockout.